diff --git a/backend/src/jobs/ai-insights.js b/backend/src/jobs/ai-insights.js
index 94f50bb..f6c3cb7 100644
--- a/backend/src/jobs/ai-insights.js
+++ b/backend/src/jobs/ai-insights.js
@@ -230,7 +230,7 @@ export async function gatherForecastData(monthProgress) {
 
   const [actualRes, schedRes] = await Promise.all([
     pool.query(
-      `SELECT date, department_id, department_name, ${showOncosts ? 'total_cost' : 'base_cost'} AS cost
+      `SELECT date, department_id, department_name, ${showOncosts ? 'total_cost' : 'base_cost'} AS cost, shift_count
        FROM wage_actuals WHERE date >= $1 AND date < $2`,
       [actualsFrom, todayStr]
     ),
@@ -249,7 +249,7 @@ export async function gatherForecastData(monthProgress) {
     const dep = r.department_id
     deptNames[dep] = r.department_name
     actualByDept[dep] ??= {}
-    actualByDept[dep][r.date.toISOString().slice(0, 10)] = { cost: parseFloat(r.cost) }
+    actualByDept[dep][r.date.toISOString().slice(0, 10)] = { cost: parseFloat(r.cost), shift_count: r.shift_count }
   }
 
   const schedByDept = {}
diff --git a/backend/src/lib/forecast.js b/backend/src/lib/forecast.js
index 4a2a13a..c503b51 100644
--- a/backend/src/lib/forecast.js
+++ b/backend/src/lib/forecast.js
@@ -13,7 +13,11 @@ export function forecastDayCost(dateStr, actualDays, scheduledDays, includeUnpub
   let probe = dateStr
   for (let hop = 0; hop <= MAX_HOPS; hop++) {
     const actual = actualDays?.[probe]
-    if (actual != null) return { cost: actual.cost, tier: 'actual' }
+    // A same-day row with shifts but £0 cost means Workforce hasn't costed them yet
+    // (shift still in progress / not clocked out) — not a genuine zero, so fall through
+    // to rota/repeat instead of treating it as ground truth.
+    const actualIncomplete = actual != null && actual.cost === 0 && (actual.shift_count ?? 0) > 0
+    if (actual != null && !actualIncomplete) return { cost: actual.cost, tier: 'actual' }
 
     const sched = scheduledDays?.[probe]
     const hasPublished = (sched?.published_shift_count ?? 0) > 0
diff --git a/frontend/src/lib/forecast.ts b/frontend/src/lib/forecast.ts
index c39d19f..3208e54 100644
--- a/frontend/src/lib/forecast.ts
+++ b/frontend/src/lib/forecast.ts
@@ -29,14 +29,18 @@ const MAX_HOPS = 6 // 6 * 7 = 42 days back, comfortably within the 35-day actual
  */
 export function forecastDayCost(
   dateStr: string,
-  actualDays: Record<string, { cost: number }> | undefined,
+  actualDays: Record<string, { cost: number; shift_count?: number }> | undefined,
   scheduledDays: DeptScheduled['days'] | undefined,
   includeUnpublished: boolean,
 ): ForecastDayResult {
   let probe = dateStr
   for (let hop = 0; hop <= MAX_HOPS; hop++) {
     const actual = actualDays?.[probe]
-    if (actual != null) return { cost: actual.cost, tier: 'actual' }
+    // A same-day row with shifts but £0 cost means Workforce hasn't costed them yet
+    // (shift still in progress / not clocked out) — not a genuine zero, so fall through
+    // to rota/repeat instead of treating it as ground truth.
+    const actualIncomplete = actual != null && actual.cost === 0 && (actual.shift_count ?? 0) > 0
+    if (actual != null && !actualIncomplete) return { cost: actual.cost, tier: 'actual' }
 
     const sched = scheduledDays?.[probe]
     const hasPublished   = (sched?.published_shift_count ?? 0) > 0